Comp TrackerStep 1: tickets sold, not max tickets
Your chance with one ticket is 1 in the number of tickets sold when the comp closes. If 600 tickets are sold and you have one, you have a 1 in 600 chance. The max ticket number is only the worst case.
Step 2: how fast are they selling?
Look at the sold count twice, an hour apart. If 40 sold in the hour and there are 5 hours to go, roughly 200 more will sell. Many tickets sell in the last few hours, so the real number is often higher.
Step 3: project to the draw
Tickets sold now + expected sales before the close = projected tickets at the draw. Your projected odds are 1 in that number. Buy 5 tickets and divide by 5.
Example: 1,000 sold, 300 an hour, 4 hours left = about 2,200 at the draw. One ticket = projected 1 in 2,200. Five tickets = about 1 in 440.
Or let us do it
We do this sum for every comp on 400+ UK sites, every few minutes. Tap any card on our site for the full maths for 1, 5, 10, 20 or 50 tickets.
Questions
How do I calculate my odds in a competition?
Divide 1 by the number of tickets sold at the close. Before the close, estimate it from tickets sold so far plus how fast they're selling.
Does buying more tickets improve my odds?
Yes, in a straight line: 10 tickets in a 1,000 ticket comp is 1 in 100. It also costs 10 times as much, so set a limit.